Excel Currencies Daily FX Market Rates – 30th July 2010
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(Please note these rates were as of 10.10am (BST) this morning, rates do fluctuate every 2 – 3 seconds, so please call us on 01322 221121 for a live rate) |
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If you need any other exchange rate, please reply to this email. |
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On the account open page, you can upload your scanned passport file and a recent utility bill (up to three months old), you can skip this step if your wish to fax or post photocopies instead. If you’re residential address in overseas, please provide another form of Photographic ID rather than a utility bill. |
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Main News Daily Update
The British pound has extended its five day advance and looks poised to test 1.580 over the medium term as policy makers are slowly shifting to the side of Andrew Sentence, and recently stating that the increase in the value added tax in 2011 will put upward pressure on consumer prices. Thus, we may see inflation remain above the central bank’s target longer than expected. Market participants will shift their focus to the GfK consumer survey report. As of late, economists are forecasting the reading to fall to -20 from -19.
In Spain, Acceleration in inflation in July (+1.9%), driven by the VAT hike. According to the preliminary estimation published by INE, prices – measured by the harmonised consumer price index – increased by 1.9% y/y in July, after 1.5% in June. Month-on-month, consumer prices probably decreased by 0.5% (driven by summer sales), after a 0.2% rise in June. No breakdown is available yet, but it seems that the VAT hike – into force since the 1st of July (but largely anticipated by retailers) – was the main driver of the year-on-year increase in consumer prices. However, these exceptional and seasonal effects should not hide the underlying trend. Headline inflation is likely to rise further in the coming months, in line with rising oil prices. Moreover, weak domestic demand and rising unemployment rate are expected to put core prices – which exclude energy and fresh food – under pressure in the coming quarters. On average, headline inflation is forecast to increase by more than 1.5% in 2010 (after -0.2% in 2009), while core inflation is expected to nearly stagnate in 2010 and decrease in 2011. In Germany, The unemployment rate decreased in July (to 7.6%). The unemployment rate fell slightly in July (to 7.6%, after 7.7% in June). The number of unemployed decreased again in July (-0.6% m/m, after -0.6% m/m in June). The number of unemployed has thus fallen by 281K since July 2009 and it is now around 20K above the trough reached in October 2008. The positive evolution in employment index of the composite PMI since the beginning of 2010 (at 53.6 in July, after 52.3 in June) suggests that employment should increase in the coming months. In Eurozone, Economic Sentiment Indicator rose sharply in July (up to 101.3) In July survey data confirmed that eurozone recovery is on track. The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI), a good gauge of GDP growth rose to 101.3 in July, above its long-term average, reaching its highest level since March 2008. This strong reading is due mainly to the excellent performance of Germany; the German ESI rose by 4 points to 110.1, its highest reading in three years. While today data signal that the eurozone economy is still expanding at rapid pace, activity is likely to moderate over the last quarter of the year. Global growth, which sustained the strong recovery in the manufacturing sector, is losing momentum and fiscal tightening is likely to weigh significantly on domestic demand. As regard prices, the survey still showed that inflationary pressures were moderate. various releases are scheduled including July’s euro-zone "flash" CPI estimate and the latest unemployment rate. For the former, we expect an annual rate of 1.7% reflecting a pull-back in energy prices a year earlier. We look for the unemployment rate to remain steady at 10%. Finally, in the UK, the GfK consumer confidence survey is due where we envisage an unchanged outturn of -19.
Today’s main data highlight is the advance estimate of Q2 GDP in the US, where we look for 2.8% annualised growth, against a final Q1 outturn of 2.7%. Following Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke’s testimony last week, financial markets continue to perceive significant uncertainty regarding the outlook for US economic activity. Forward-looking business surveys, for example, have been largely disappointing in recent weeks. Consumer confidence – weighed down by a slow pace of private sector job creation – is a case in point. This afternoon sees the final University of Michigan confidence report for July, where we look for an outturn of 65.5 compared with the “flash” estimate of 66.5. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard held a dovish outlook for inflation and said the U.S. faces a similar scenario to Japan as price growth falters, and argued that the FOMC should “expand the quantitative program through the purchase of Treasury securities” in an effort to mitigate the risks for deflation. Although, Mr. Bullard said he expects the downside risks for inflation to subside once the recovery comes into full swing, and warned that keeping the benchmark interest rate at the record-low for too long could be counterproductive and may “encourage a permanent, low nominal interest rate outcome.” In addition, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher noted further easing in monetary policy could have limited impact on the real economy as households and businesses “are beset by unmanageable uncertainty,” and sees a risk for the economy to be “sailing forward at suboptimal speed, despite the fact that the cost of borrowing is low, equity markets have shown resilience, and liquidity is plentiful.” The comments from the heads of the district central banks suggests the Fed may opt to expand monetary policy further over the coming months in an effort to strengthen the recovery, and may see scope to hold borrowing costs close to zero going into 2011 to counter the substantial amount of slack within the real economy. Nevertheless, as the world’s largest economy is projected to expand at an annualized pace of 2.5% in the second-quarter, with personal consumption forecasted to increase 2.4% following the 3.0% rise during the first-three months of the year, the slower pace of growth could weigh on market sentiment as policy makers anticipate to see a moderate recovery going forward. At the same time, the final reading for the U. of Michigan confidence survey is expected to come in at 67.0 for July from an initial forecast of 66.5, but the market may neglect the upward revision as households continue to face tightening credit conditions along with the ongoing weakness in the labour market.
Yesterday Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister, Sergey Tigipko, said that the government expects to receive the first $1.89 billion disbursement under Ukraine’s new IMF programme within a few days. This is certainly good news and should further help to stabilise the fragile recovery in the Ukrainian economy. There is quite a bit of EMEA macroeconomic data on the agenda today, but none is likely to bring big market-moving news. Most interesting will probably be Estonian industrial production for June. It will be interesting to see whether the Estonian manufacturing sector has continued to recover or if there are any signs of a soft-spot, similar to what we have seen in Estonian confidence indicators recently.
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Excel Currencies cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. If you wish to unsubscribe / cancel your subscription, please reply to the email. |
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Excel Currencies company website
Ashley Ingle personal currency broker
Excel Currencies Daily FX Market Rates – 29th July 2010
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(Please note these rates were as of 10.15am (BST) this morning, rates do fluctuate every 2 – 3 seconds, so please call us on 01322 221121 for a live rate) |
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If you need any other exchange rate, please reply to this email. |
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On the account open page, you can upload your scanned passport file and a recent utility bill (up to three months old), you can skip this step if your wish to fax or post photocopies instead. If you’re residential address in overseas, please provide another form of Photographic ID rather than a utility bill. |
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Main News Daily Update
Wednesday’s testimony by the Bank of England MPC members to the Treasury Select Committee highlighted the wide range of views about the risks surrounding the UK economic outlook. One of the risks is the renewed weakness in the housing market as one of the reasons why any discussion of policy tightening is far too premature and further easing may yet be required to assure that growth momentum is sustained. House price indices have began to roll over in the past few months and leading indicators, such as mortgage approvals and net mortgage lending, suggest no immediate respite on the horizon. In June, Lloyds TSB expect both series to have remained subdued, with approvals slipping to 47k and net mortgage lending declining to £1.1bn. Mortgage Approvals are expected to fall for the second consecutive month in June while Net Consumer Credit growth slows from the previous month over the same period. The figures will reinforce dovish comments from BOE policymakers delivered in testimony to the Parliament’s Treasury Committee, where governor Mervyn King downplayed the stronger-than-expected second quarter GDP result to stress lingering uncertainty about the recovery in general and inflation in particular, signalling monetary policy is firmly stuck in accommodative territory for the time being.
In Germany, Inflation up to 1.1% in July. CPI inflation rose to 1.1% in July, up by 0.2 point in comparison with June. Base-effects linked to energy and food prices (in particular in seasonal food sector) underpinned inflation. Inflation should continue to increase slightly over next months. Indeed, firms should partially pass the increase in import goods prices on to final prices. In the eurozone, the focus will be on the publication of the European Commission economic confidence readings which we expect to show very little change in the overall regional sentiment in the month of June. While in Germany, the latest labour market data are expected to indicate that unemployment was fairly static in July as companies remain reluctant to take on labour given the uncertain global economic outlook.
In US, Lower durable goods orders in June, for the second consecutive month. Durable goods orders dropped for the second consecutive month in June, by 1.0% m/m. These disappointing data mainly reflected lower transportation and defence orders. By contrast, less volatile “core” orders – i.e. non-defence capital goods excluding aircraft – were up for the second consecutive month, by 0.6% m/m. Durable goods shipments have been up by 9.4% q/q annualised in the second quarter, pointing to another sharp increase in expenditure in equipment and software. Early signals indicate slower growth in manufacturing activity, pointing to weaker investment growth in future quarters. EUR/USD looks like it will explode sooner or later after having traded immensely close to 1.30 for days now. If equity markets return to the positive mood, it will be on the upside; if the air goes out of the balloon it will be on the downside. Fed‟s Beige Book showed that commercial real estate and expiration of a tax credit for homebuyers were weighing on the economy in some areas. “Economic activity has continued to increase, on balance, since the previous survey” the Fed said yesterday while noting that two of the Fed‟s 12 districts reported the economy „held steady‟ and two said expansion slowed. Housing markets were characterized as "sluggish" while labour market conditions were described as "improving modestly". All in all, a not so cheering affair, as could be expected after Bernanke‟s soft testimony last week.
Yesterday we got a pleasant surprise when Lithuanian Q2 GDP numbers surprised positively. Hence, GDP grew by 1.1% y/y in Q2 South African inflation (CPI) eased to 4.2% y/y in June – well below the consensus expectation of 4.5% y/y and comfortably within the South African Reserve Bank’s inflation target of 3-6%. The number clearly keeps the door open for a rate cut from SARB and South African market rates and yields dropped on the back of the number. Furthermore, the continue overvaluation of the rand is also an argument for cutting ratings in South Africa. That said, there is certainly not room for aggressive monetary easing and if we are going to see further monetary easing it is unlikely to be more than a single cut. It is a relatively light calendar today. Focus on producer prices data out of Hungary and South Africa. Danske do not expect the data to be market-moving. The Czech koruna undoubtedly is the EMEA currency that Danske are most bullish on – both short-term and long-term. Yesterday, the koruna hit the strongest level against the euro in 20 months.
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Excel Currencies cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. If you wish to unsubscribe / cancel your subscription, please reply to the email. |
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20 Copperfields Centre, Spital Street, Dartford, Kent, DA1 2DE |
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Excel Currencies company website
Ashley Ingle personal currency broker
GetBlogs Blog Directory
Excel Currencies Daily FX Market Rates – 28th July 2010
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(Please note these rates were as of 9.45am (BST) this morning, rates do fluctuate every 2 – 3 seconds, so please call us on 01322 221121 for a live rate) |
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If you need any other exchange rate, please reply to this email. |
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On the account open page, you can upload your scanned passport file and a recent utility bill (up to three months old), you can skip this step if your wish to fax or post photocopies instead. If you’re residential address in overseas, please provide another form of Photographic ID rather than a utility bill. |
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Main News Daily Update
Confidence in the British pound is a fragile thing. Support needs to be found through fiscal stability, interest rate potential and economic expansion to support expectations that the sterling is on strong enough to catch up to its largest counterparts. Today, the single currency was provided a particularly strong boost from an oftentimes overlooked indicator. The CBI’s distributive trends report (a proprietary reading of retail activity) far outstripped expectations with a net 33 percent of respondents reporting a boost in sales – the highest reading since April 2007. Today marks the first of four key BoE events that take place over the next four weeks that could decide the direction of sterling and gilts over the remainder of Q3. The testimony to the TSC has not been kind to GBP over the last three sessions. Admittedly the last three testimonies took place in a different economic and political context compared to today and therefore need not necessarily be a guide to what to expect today. If we trace the rally in sterling and firmer yields to the relief bounce in risk post EU stress tests and ‘generous’ new Basel leverage rules, then one wonders if today’s TSC testimony will disrupt momentum. What is clear is that investors have ignored the more dovish rhetoric from the July minutes and individual MPC members, instead playing up to the weaker USD and bullish price action in stocks. The risk is that governor King reins in optimism and warns of the numerous pitfalls ahead. The TSC hearing features governor King and lone hawk Sentance among others; we are interested to hear from the governor what he makes of the strong Q2 GDP numbers last week and how confident he is of predicting the outlook for a more mediocre second half.
The preliminary German CPI is expected to have risen by a modest 0.1% in July to be 1.0% higher than a year ago. This follows annual inflation moderating to 0.8% in June. At July’s ECB press conference, Jean-Claude Trichet noted that some pick-up in price pressures were likely in the short-term. Although the money supply expanded for the first time in eight months in June, that outcome did not take into account July’s expiry of the ECB’s 12-month repo – a lending facility allowing European banks to secure access to the central bank’s funds for a year – which amounted to large liquidity drain and put upward pressure on short-term borrowing costs. Indeed, European 2-year yields overtook those of the US for the first time in three months at the beginning of this month and now trade at a 25bps premium, meaning Euro Zone monetary conditions are at their most restrictive since mid-February. With borrowing costs set to push higher still as governments issue debt to finance their gaping deficits and economic growth likely to slow amid a lurch toward austerity, the path of least resistance for the ECB points toward (at least) a static posture, with the possibility of greater easing seemingly far greater than that of tightening.
After declining in May, US durable goods orders are expected to have rebounded, up 0.5% on the month in June. Conversely, we are looking for a moderation in durables excluding the volatile transportation component, as underlying demand remains muted. However, as demonstrated by the stronger than expected US home sales earlier in the week, Lloyds TSB do not believe there will be any significant reaction to the result as investors await the advance estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday. The release of the Fed’s Beige book is not expected to provide any ‘new’ information with the commentary reiterating the dovish tone of the June FOMC minutes and Fed Chairman Bernanke’s testimony last week.
Data on South African inflation in June is also due to be released today. This number could get some attention following last week’s decision by the South African central bank to leave rates unchanged. Risk appetite seems to be returning and that has helped EMEA markets since the start of the week. Most notable in our view is the continued strengthening of the South African rand – against all odds.
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Excel Currencies cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. If you wish to unsubscribe / cancel your subscription, please reply to the email. |
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Excel Currencies company website
Ashley Ingle personal currency broker
Excel Currencies Daily FX Market Rates – 27th July 2010
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(Please note these rates were as of 11.00am (BST) this morning, rates do fluctuate every 2 – 3 seconds, so please call us on 01322 221121 for a live rate) |
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On the account open page, you can upload your scanned passport file and a recent utility bill (up to three months old), you can skip this step if your wish to fax or post photocopies instead. If you’re residential address in overseas, please provide another form of Photographic ID rather than a utility bill. |
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Main News Daily Update
Retail sentiment will be the main focus in the UK, with the CBI due to release its latest Distributive Trades Survey. Given the 1% rise in June retail sales (ex fuel), the CBI reported sales balance is expected to have bounced from -5% to +3% in July. Elsewhere, eurozone M3 figures are likely to confirm money growth remains stagnant.
The Irish economy returns to growth, driven by a cyclical upturn in exports, though domestic demand remains weak. GDP expected to increase by 0.75% in 2010, before growing by 3.5% in 2011, as the recovery in domestic demand picks up pace. Structural problem of over-indebtedness remains and household deleveraging and Government retrenchment will remain key themes for the next few years. Unemployment is also expected to remain high as the economy restructures to a smaller construction sector, although emigration of foreign migrants will ease transition.
With money, bond and equity markets having broadly welcomed the results of the EU bank stress tests, the first major hurdle of the week appears to have been negotiated reasonably successfully. Focus now turns to a spate of US activity data over the balance of the week, which should help shape US growth expectations as we head through the second half of 2010. On the face of it, yesterday’s better-than expected new home sales figures provided a reasonable start, with sales rising by 24% to 330k in June. The improvement, however, was purely due to a massive 37% drop in the May data, to a downwardly revised new record low (of 267k). Today’s US consumer confidence report is likely to confirm that underlying sentiment, in the consumer sector at least, is beginning to flag. Lloyds TSB expect consumer confidence to have slipped from 52.9 to 51.8 in July, with the risk to the downside, as the softening housing market starts to take its toll.
Yesterday, the Latvian Parliament unanimously voted for the revised insolvency law, which had been returned to the Latvian parliament by the Latvian President Valdis Zatlers. The new insolvency law significantly strengthens the position of debtors relative to creditors and basically means that debtors are only liable to pay back what the market value of the collateral is rather than the actual loan. Hungarian retail sales dropped by 4.8%/y in June. Overall, the numbers further confirms that domestic demand remains very weak in Hungary and with the recent weakening of the Hungarian forint and general increase in investor concern about the Hungarian economy; we have a difficult time seeing any real rebound in retail sales in the near future. Turkish manufacturing confidence increased to 112.7 in July from 111.7 in June – further confirming that the recovery in the Turkish manufacturing sector continues.
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Excel Currencies cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. If you wish to unsubscribe / cancel your subscription, please reply to the email. |
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Excel Currencies company website
Ashley Ingle personal currency broker
Excel Currencies Daily FX Market Rates – 26th July 2010
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(Please note these rates were as of 10.45am (BST) this morning, rates do fluctuate every 2 – 3 seconds, so please call us on 01322 221121 for a live rate) |
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On the account open page, you can upload your scanned passport file and a recent utility bill (up to three months old), you can skip this step if your wish to fax or post photocopies instead. If you’re residential address in overseas, please provide another form of Photographic ID rather than a utility bill. |
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Main News Daily Update
In United Kingdom, according to its preliminary estimate, activity was up markedly in Q2 2010, +1.1% q/q after +0.3% q/q in Q1 2010. The recovery in output was marked across the board. In the manufacturing sector, output was up by +1.6% q/q. In the services, activity was up by 0.9% q/q. Output jumped in construction (+6.6% q/q). Conversely it was up modestly in agriculture (+0.3%) and decreased in mining (-0.8% q/q). Overall, given the expected deceleration in activity in the second half of this year, GDP growth should be around 2% in 2010, before decelerating further next year.
In France, Household spending on manufactured goods down by 0.9% q/q in Q2. Real household spending on manufactured goods was down by 1.4% m/m in June, after a rebound recorded in May. There were two main reasons for this sharp decline. First, household durables sales, and in particular TV sales, fell back after the boom recorded ahead of the football world cup. Electronic equipment sales were down by 3.7% m/m after +12.4% m/m in May. Second, clothes and leather sales were down, for the third consecutive month. The sharp drop recorded in June (-5.0% m/m) was partly due to the sale season calendar, and some rebound is likely in July. Car sales stabilized in June for the second month in a row (0% m/m after -0.3% m/m in May). They were however down by 8.4% q/q on average in Q2 2010 (after -11.1% q/q in Q1) and have fallen below their average level in 2008. All in all, real spending on manufactured goods was down by 0.9% q/q in Q2, after -1.9% q/q in Q1 2010. This decline was largely due to the correction in car sales, while other sales remained weak in recent months, with the exception of electronic equipment sales. Total household consumption (goods and services) is likely to have remained nearly flat in Q2 2010. In Germany, Strong increase of the Ifo Business Climate index in July (106.2). The first data for the third quarter of the year reported that Germany is still in a very good shape. The Ifo’s “headline” business climate index rose to 106.2 in July, the highest level in three years. GDP likely increased by around 1.5% q/q in Q2 2010. Today’s data signal that activity is still expanding at a rapid pace. However, the pace of economic activity is likely to moderate throughout the second half of the year. External demand, the main engine of German economy is losing momentum and domestic demand is unlikely to compensate the slowdown of external demand.
The data calendar is rather thin today. Data is expected to show that new home sales in the US picked up in June after a sharp drop in May. No large companies report Q2 earnings today.
Only 7 of 91 banks failed the European stress tests published by the Committee of the European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) on Friday. While it put into question the severity of the stress test it is close to markets expectations based on what has been leaked from the National Supervisors in recent weeks. The amount of disclosure was the positive surprise. Most banks except a few German banks have released detailed information about their sovereign debt exposure. This might aid further in the market to a larger degree starting to differentiate risks between banks. However, we do not expect the stress to be the big game changer in Europe. With the apparent weakness of the stress tests, financial markets has probably not yet been convinced that European bank as a whole have sufficient capitalisation. In Europe the confidence in the banking sector and confidence in the sustainability of public finances are highly interwoven and it that sense restoration of confidence in particularly peripheral countries will still be dependent on Europe’s ability to convince the market, that a sovereign default is unlikely to happen. Market reaction in U.S. trade Friday evening was slightly positive after some initial jitters. EUR strengthened slightly and European banks traded in the US ADR market gained modestly. As a direct consequence of the release of the stress test the Bund future lost around 30cents (around 3-4bp in 10y yields). On balance we regard the stress test as slightly positive, but a significant near-term reduction in the risk premium levied on the single currency appears unlikely. The market impact could be slightly positive for risky assets including peripherals government bonds.
A couple of Polish numbers were released on Friday. Retail sales surprised on the upside, growing 6.4% y/y in June compared with the consensus expectation of 4.1% y/y. Unemployment dropped a bit in June to 11.6% from 11.9% in May. Both numbers confirm that the recovery in the Polish economy continues and that rate hikes have moved closer. Friday brought more bad news regarding the situation in Hungary as the two rating agencies Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s both came out with warnings that they could downgrade Hungary’s credit rating on the back of the breakdown of talks between the Hungarian government and EU/IMF. Unfortunately, the Hungarian government once again demonstrated that it does not seem to take the concerns of investors, lenders and rating agencies seriously as Economics Minister Gyorgy Matolcsy said that the rating agencies “don’t understand” that fiscal responsibility needn’t come at the expense of independent economic policy. Telling rating agencies that they don’t understand is not going to do much for the credibility of economic policy in Hungary. Not much on the agenda today in the region other than Hungarian retail sales. Danske expect the Hungarian retail sales numbers to confirm that the Hungarian economy and domestic demand in particular continues to be very weak.
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The contents of this report are for information purposes only. It is not intended as a recommendation to trade or a solicitation for funds. Excel Currencies cannot be held responsible for any loss or damages arising from any action taken following consideration of this information. If you wish to unsubscribe / cancel your subscription, please reply to the email. |
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Excel Currencies company website
Ashley Ingle personal currency broker
Excel Currencies USD Weekly Forecast – 26th – 30th July 2010
USD Weekly – US Dollar Awaits a Clear Bearing on Risk, Looks Ahead to 2Q GDP
Fundamental Outlook for US Dollar is Neutral (overall, no significant price action). The markets seem weather the EU Stress Test; but confidence has not been restored. US economic health continues to diminish, leveraging a dependency on risk appetite trends. Dollar awaits confirmation on direction, conviction with key levels ahead.
In the US, the advance estimate of Q2 GDP on Friday provides the data highlight of the week, although before then other more timely releases will also draw strong interest. Lloyds TSB look for annualised GDP growth from 2.7% in Q1 to 2.8% in Q2, underpinned by rising business investment. This release will also contain annual revisions to GDP growth for the past three years. The Fed’s Beige Book, on Thursday, is likely to underline the dovish tone of the June FOMC minutes and Fed chairman Bernanke’s testimony last week. Together with a likely softer reading for July consumer confidence earlier in the week, it raises the possibility that GDP growth may remain relatively subdued in the current quarter. The economic slowdown appears to be weighing heavily on the housing market, although the latest data also reflect the expiration of key government initiatives. While we look for a small rise in June new home sales on Monday, this comes after a record 33% drop to an all time low of 300,000 in May. In other events, the Treasury will auction $104bn of notes this week.
In the past week, the dollar has carved out a relatively volatile path; but the single currency has made no headway in extending a two-month bear trend or exerting the necessary effort to establish a much needed reversal. The burden over the greenback wasn’t a lack of fundamental guidance; but rather an abundance of it. A disappointing round of economic data, questionable second quarter earnings figures, the emergence of new risk factors in the global economy and of course the anchor that was the EU Stress Tests all worked to force the currency into its unusual position. Looking to the week ahead, we have many of the same circumstances; however, this time around, we may find enough agreement on growth and risk trends to finally recover a trend – for better or worse.
First and foremost, the dollar’s role as a safe haven currency holds the greatest influence over the direction and intensity of price action; but this underlying current itself is far from assured. It may seem that the release of the EU Stress Test results has been met by a stoic and perhaps pleasantly surprised market; but in fact, we have yet to see a real reaction to the details and an overall consensus on the report. In its release this past Friday, policy officials deliberately released its report after the official European market close when only the West was still online to respond; and even they would have only a few hours of light to respond to the convoluted tale. With a full weekend to read the 55 pages novel, market participants can decide whether they are reassured. That being said, the lenient scenarios laid out, the poor accounting of sovereign debt exposure and a general lack of support should things truly deteriorate give plenty of reason for doubt.
What’s more, the potential catalysts for risk seem to be multiplying. The Stress Test of the past week can only curb fear over the funding abilities of the region’s largest banks. That does not ensure an improvement in the economic health of the EU and government’s access to fund. What’s more, the peripheral region could cause a fire that spread into the region’s core. Hungary was reportedly put on downgrade watch by Standard & Poor’s; and a crisis began here is just as concerning as one that begins with Greece. The focus on the euro-region is intense for a reason. Not only is this market and economy’s health at the centre of confidence right now; but as the principal counterpart to the greenback, the euro’s future can redefine the dollar’s. Further broadening our horizons, the need for a safe haven could easily develop should troubles in China, the emerging market economies or even domestically develop. A Bloomberg report suggests Chinese governments may struggle to repay 23 percent of its $1.1 trillion loans from banks as revenues fail to appear. An interesting report from the BoJ likened the decision facing the emerging market leaders to the situation in Japan back in the 1980s whereby loose policy led to a lost decade.
Fear of a crisis isn’t the only factor in sentiment. An underlying condition of optimism is growth and the yields its brings. Yet, the world is expected see expansion level off in the coming months. We will see if that was the case with the world’s largest economy this Friday. Economists expect the annualized pace of growth to cool from a 2.7 to 2.5 percent clip through the second quarter. Not only does this set a proxy for the world, it lowers the dollar’s relative strength when measured up to its peers.
In June, the Conference Board’s household confidence index dropped sharply to 52.9 from 62.7. The University of Michigan index was more resilient in June, but contracted sharply to 66.5 in July from 76. Signs of a fragile recovery (disappointing macroeconomic indicators) coupled with the slowdown in hiring in the private sector, the relapse of the housing market and the ensuing correction in the financial markets, probably affected recently household assessments of the economy. The drop-off in household confidence is likely to be confirmed in the very short term in a persistently sluggish environment. The Conference Board index is unlikely to improve in July (estimated at 51; figure to be released on 27 July). In May, durable goods orders contracted for the first time since November 2009 (-0.6% m/m) due to the downturn in orders for the transport sector. The rebound in aircraft orders in June should fuel a strong rebound in total orders over the period (estimated at +4% m/m; figure to be released on 28 July) even though the recovery in the manufacturing sector has been showing clear signs of weakening in the past few months (notably the ISM survey). In the first quarter, GDP growth remained upbeat at an annualised 2.7% q/q, even though growth appeared to slow sharply compared to Q4 2009 due to less buoyant support from changes in inventory and the negative influence of foreign trade. Growth could slow somewhat further in Q2 (estimated at an annualised 2.2% q/q, figure to be released on 30 July), mainly as changes in inventory make a more limited contribution to growth. Within final domestic demand, private consumption is expected to slow compared to the previous quarter while investment should be dynamic, buoyed by corporate spending on equipment and a (temporary) rebound in housing investment.
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Excel Currencies EUR Weekly Forecast – 26th – 30th July 2010
EUR Weekly – Euro Vulnerable as Markets Weigh Stress Tests
Fundamental Forecast for Euro is Bearish (overall, to get weaker). European Manufacturing, Services Activity Unexpectedly Accelerates, German Business Confidence Topped Expectations in July, Says IFO. Euro Mute After Stress Test Results – Is This a Sign of Confidence?
After Friday’s EU bank ‘stress tests’, this week sees a variety of releases across the euro-zone, including euro M3 money supply, the latest European Commission surveys, preliminary July CPI data and July German unemployment figures Euro area monetary statistics are of particular interest as financial market volatility has a direct bearing on bank funding costs. Surprisingly, bank lending growth to the euro-zone private sector picked up modestly in May, despite extreme market volatility. But it is not clear this trend will continue uninterrupted going forward. Meanwhile, Lloyds TSB look for a modest improvement in the Commission’s economic sentiment index to 99.0 from 98.7, amid continued healthy demand from emerging Asian economies for euro-zone exports. On inflation, the “flash” estimate of euro-zone annual CPI is predicted to register 1.7% in July, from 1.4% previously. At July’s ECB press conference, Jean-Claude Trichet noted that some pick-up in price pressures was likely in the short term.
The Euro may resume its long-term downtrend as investors scrutinize a deeply flawed set of EU bank stress test results amid increasingly lacking support from the unwinding of record speculative short positions.
The widely anticipated EU bank stress test results have come and gone, with only seven of the 91 lenders included in the experiment failing to come out with a favourable outcome. These firms will need to raise a combined 3.5 billion Euros to bring them up to snuff – a pittance compared with what the market had expected. Judging by the market’s reaction, investors have been reassured, with the Euro managing to finish Friday’s session higher 0.1 percent higher against a trade-weighted average of its major counterparts. Indeed, there are ample reasons to see the results as suspect. By any measure, the aim of the exercise was to show that European banks are adequately capitalized to withstand a sovereign default within the EU or its immediate periphery. However, the Committee of European Banking Supervisors (CEBS) that administered the tests apparently ignored the majority of banks’ holdings of sovereign debt. Indeed, CEBS said it only took account of losses on those government bonds held on lenders’ trading books – a small minority of their total holdings – most of which sit on their banking books (meaning the bonds are intended to be held to maturity rather than actively traded). Banks need to write down losses from these long-term holdings only in the event of serious doubt about the government’s ability to meet its obligations, which is precisely what would occur in a default scenario.
In short, it would appear the stress tests were not nearly rigorous enough to truly instill confidence in the European banking sector, a reality that may prove to weigh heavily on the Euro as liquidity returns next week. The single currency had been well-supported by short-covering as investors unwound record-high bets against it. However, the latest IMM positioning figures reveal that net speculative short exposure has now dropped below its year-to-date average, hinting that portfolio readjustment may prove to be an increasingly feeble force underpinning the exchange rate in the days ahead.
In June, the eurozone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) from the European Commission slightly increased to 98.7 from 98.4 recorded in May. On a quarterly basis the index rose by 2.6 points signalling that GDP probably accelerated in Q2 2010 with respect to Q1 2010. However, activity is losing momentum.. After strongly increasing in the first half of the year, the industrial confidence indicator (which accounts for 40% of the ESI, the highest weight) is likely to ease. There are signs that the global trade cycle in goods and services has peaked, implying lower external demand for the industrial sector. Moreover domestic demand is expected to remain subdued over the coming quarters, constrained by tough labour market conditions and fiscal consolidation measures adopted by several governments. A weak domestic demand will weigh on consumer and services confidence. All in all, the ESI will probably ease in July (to be released on 29 July). Inflation probably increased to around 1.5-1.6% in July from 1.4% in June (the flash estimate will be released on 30 July). Inflation is likely to remain on an upward trend over the coming months driven up by rising commodity prices and by the euro depreciation. However, there is no inflationary threat on the horizon. Core inflation, which accounts for around 70% of headline inflation, is projected to ease over the coming quarters. In Germany, inflation slowed from 1.2% in May to 0.9% in June. Core inflation stabilised at +0.7%, having been distorted in March and April by the timing of Easter. Inflation is likely to climb back in July (data released on Wednesday 29 July), in line avec with unfavourable base effects on energy and food prices. At the same time, consumption weakness should continue to weigh on core inflation. The jobless rate, unchanged from the previous month, was only 0.1 point above the lowest level reached in November 2008. The number of unemployed has declined by 253K since July 2009 and stood 40K above its trough in November 2008. Employment (published with a one-month lag) increased in May (+38K after +41K in April 2010). The jobless rate is likely to have decreased in July (data released on Thursday 29 July).
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Excel Currencies GBP Weekly Forecast – 26th – 30th July 2010
GBP Weekly – British Pound at Risk
Fundamental Forecast for British Pound is Bearish (overall, to get weaker). U.K. GDP nearly doubled expectations of 0.6% growing 1.1% in the second quarter. BoE Voted 7-1 to keep rates unchanged at 0.50% according to minutes. June’s budget deficit was wider than expected at 20.9B. Retail sales improved by 0.7% in June surpassing estimates of 0.5%.
After last week’s MPC minutes, retail sales and GDP reports, the UK data calendar thins out considerably this week. The latest CBI Distributive Trades and housing/lending surveys provide the main focus in a week of second tier data. The CBI is expected to report that retail sentiment picked up slightly in July, boosted by the hot weather and sales of seasonal clothes lines. Lloyds TSB expect the net balance of retailers reporting a rise in sales to have risen from -5% to +3% this month. In keeping with signs that the UK housing market may be starting to soften again, the Nationwide house price index is forecast to have dropped by 0.4% in July; mortgage lending and approvals in June are also expected to have softened.
The British Pound ended the week higher as improving fundamentals offset dimming interest rate expectations but uncertainty over growth and monetary policy could expose the sterling to broader trends going forward. The second quarter GDP report showed growth at nearly double the pace that was expected keeping the GBP/USD from remaining unchanged on the week. Early weakness on the back of a larger than expected budget deficit for June and dovish remarks from the BoE was retraced following a robust retail sales report before the growth figures broke the tie. A lack of event risk on the upcoming economic calendar could see direction determined by corporate earnings as markets try to gauge the sustainability of the global recovery.
The increase in consumer consumption was more impressive considering that gas sales declined 3.9% during the period but flat demand for apparel shows that Britons continue to scrutinize purchases. The improved growth picture has increased concerns over inflation which has been above the government’s 3.0% threshold for five straight months, but the consensus amongst policy makers is that existing slack in the economy will ultimately bear down on prices making a rate hike more likely later than sooner. The central bank’s uncertainty over the course of monetary policy can been seen in recent comments from MPC member Adam Posen who stated that there is a “more than 50% likelihood in my estimation the right next move will be to loosen rather than to tighten” but “for me, the possibility still exists of it being right to raise interest rates before too long.” The voting member would go on to say that “if we do it [quantitative easing] again, we’re probably not going to do it in dribs and drabs. It is an instrument that is best done for a sustained period.” Therefore, we could start to see markets begin to price in the potential for a period of stimulus which would weigh on the pound.
The consumer credit report and mortgage approvals highlight the upcoming week’s event risk as signs that banks continue to hoard cash and tighten lending standards will dim the outlook for future growth. The Gfk consumer confidence readings could also be a key release as declining optimism will weigh on future demand. Meanwhile, the European stress test results proved to be a non-event as only 7 out of 91 banks failed which could open the door for a relief rally. However, the stringency of the tests may not be enough to ease concerns leaving the potential for sterling weakness.
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Excel Currencies Daily FX Market Rates – 23rd July 2010
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(Please note these rates were as of 10.20am (BST) this morning, rates do fluctuate every 2 – 3 seconds, so please call us on 01322 221121 for a live rate) |
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Main News Daily Update
The British pound was generally caught up in the bearing and intensity of risk appetite trends, with little attention paid to the second tier retail sales report for June (which consequently booked a stronger-than-expected 1.0 percent climb). For the final session of the week, responsibility for price action will be shared a little more evenly. A positive outcome for European financials will bode well for the UK. At the same time, the UK’s own 2Q GDP reading will be an integral update for the sterling itself and act as a proxy for growth in the industrialized world. Preliminary UK Gross Domestic Product figures are set to show the economy picked up momentum in momentum in the second quarter, adding 0.6 percent in the three months through June. The annual growth rate is expected to tick higher to 1.1 percent, the first positive reading in two years and the highest since the first quarter of 2008. However, the operative question at present is how much the economy will slow as the government implements its ambitious “emergency” budget plan – a scheme designed to trim the deficit by a whopping 6.3 percent of GDP in 2014-15. This means the market will likely wait for the more detailed second revision of second-quarter figures that will offer a breakdown of the sources of growth to really size up the result, with traders most concerned with the economy’s ability to avoid renewed recession as fiscal stimulus is withdrawn.
We are coming down to the wire. The European Union is scheduled to publish the results of its Stress Test to a very eager market at 12:00 GMT. This is strategic timing for policy officials as it would be after the official close of European banks and is generally a period where liquidity is winding down for the weekend. For the markets, this will mean a dampened reaction to any surprises and a longer period for reflection. This is preferable from their perspective as it will cut down on immediate panics or euphorias. That being said, there is no way to curb the market’s interpretation altogether; and price action will roll over to Monday just as surely as it would erupt on Friday should it be a remarkable outcome. From the report, Bloomberg News has quoted a document from the CEBS whereby the group is working on three scenarios – one in which a “sovereign shock” would lead to the default of smaller private firms but not an actual nation. Traders will have to judge whether this assessment is transparent and critical enough of future circumstances to be considered useful. If it isn’t, the outcome could be as bad as a round of failures. Germany’s IFO Survey of business confidence is expected to show firms’ economic expectations deteriorated for the third consecutive month in July amid concerns about a lurch toward fiscal austerity and rising long-term borrowing costs as governments work to unwind massive public deficits. However, an upside surprise is not out of the question after preliminary PMI figures surprised broadly to the upside for the same period.
The dollar suffered its worst stumble in a week as risk appetite surged. What is important now is determining whether this particular move should be adopted into speculative expectations and trade decisions, or whether this is a market abnormality that has developed because of the distortion characterized by forthcoming event risk. Should we defer to the first assessment, the sharp advance in growth and yield-sensitive assets almost fully offsets the cumulative losses of the week and suggests a continuation of a dominant trend. Alternatively, should the session’s volatility and direction boil down to a side effect of the looming event risk of the coming 24 hours; today’s activity could be a throwaway because the reaction to the EU Stress Test could produce dramatically different outcomes. That being said, today’s activity will have a permanent effect on price action to some extent. With today’s activity, a few critical pairs have seen a significantly relief in speculative pressure. Among the most notable developments: EURUSD has pulled back into congestion rather than keeping the world’s most liquid pair on the cusp of a larger retracement of its two-month rally. Looking for the source of today’s rally, sentiment itself did not have a particular catalyst with which to run with. In fact, the general cut of the scheduled and unscheduled event risk would be considered a weight on the outlook under normal circumstances. For a global assessment of economic activity and market health: Japanese officials repeated concern over the volatility in exchange rates and the implications it has on vital trade; the IMF warned that the Euro-area economy would slow substantially over the next few years and listed significant steps that must be taken to promote stability; the BoE’s chief economists warned that the UK economy would suffer for its fiscal responsibility; and Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke maintained his outlook for uncertainty under the context of potential global troubles and domestic struggles with economic stimulation. And, for those that would point to the earnings data for the day as a definitive contribution to optimism, the figures were positive; but accounting for yesterday’s financial firms is arguably more important yet it ultimately contributed little to price action. Having even less impact on investor confidence considering its outcome (though conforms to the dollar’s performance) was the day’s US data. While it may not be good for short-term volatility, the data is nonetheless an important assessment of medium-term economic performance. Confirming that housing is a considerable burden on the recovery and will continue to be, existing home sales dropped another 5.1 percent and inventory rose to a 10-month high. For a broader assessment of growth, the Leading Indicators composite fell for the second time in 15 months.
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Excel Currencies Daily FX Market Rates – 22nd July 2010
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(Please note these rates were as of 11.10am (BST) this morning, rates do fluctuate every 2 – 3 seconds, so please call us on 01322 221121 for a live rate) |
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On the account open page, you can upload your scanned passport file and a recent utility bill (up to three months old), you can skip this step if your wish to fax or post photocopies instead. If you’re residential address in overseas, please provide another form of Photographic ID rather than a utility bill. |
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Main News Daily Update
The GBP has performed well of late, strengthening through $1.54 and tested €1.24 on signs that the UK recovery is firming and growing confidence that the new government will tackle the large budget deficit. However, Lloyds TSB believe uncertainties and challenges to the economic outlook remain, not least from the unprecedented scale of public spending cuts expected in the years ahead. They predict UK economic growth will come in below the current consensus in both 2010 and 2011, at 1% and 2% respectively, with a significant risk of a double-dip recession. Lloyds TSB forecast GBP/USD to trend lower in the coming year, falling to 1.40 and potentially below, by Q2 2011. After yesterday’s dovish MPC minutes and Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments last night, focus in the UK turns to the June retail sales report this morning. Given the uncertain impact of the World Cup – food & drink sales are likely to be stronger, but store sales weaker – today’s out-turn could spring a surprise. Lloyds TSB look for an overall monthly increase of 0.3%, although forecasts range from -0.1% to +1.0%. Irrespective of today’s outturn, the challenges facing the consumer sector remain considerable: household disposable incomes are falling, house prices are weakening, labour market and credit conditions remain fragile, and fiscal policy is set to be tightened considerably. Against this backdrop, the MPC noted in yesterday’s July minutes that the risks of a renewed slowdown in UK growth have risen in recent months, possibly paving the way for more monetary stimulus if these risks are crystallized.
In trade-weighted terms, the euro has fallen by around 4.5% since early April. The low point was reached towards the end of June following the extreme volatility in eurozone financial markets. Since then, however, doubts about the durability of the US economic recovery has led to a strong rebound, although underlying sentiment towards the single currency remains fragile. The upcoming bank ‘stress tests’ – welcomed by the ECB on the grounds of transparency – are a case in point. The tests have the potential to drag on the euro over the short term. Further out, the eurozone still needs a meaningful pick-up in private sector final demand to make headway going into next year. Against the USD, Lloyds TSB look for the euro to fall to 1.20 by end-2011. In the Euro-zone, preliminary manufacturing and services PMIs are both expected to have softened, in keeping with the emerging slowdown expected across this region in H2. In the US, weekly jobless claims and existing home sales will be watched closely. Both are expected to post noticeably weaker outturns.
Although recent softer data have raised concerns about the outlook, Lloyds TSB remain confident that the US economic recovery is on track. They look for US economic growth to comfortably outpace that of its main G10 peers in 2010 and 2011, at 3.1% and 3.3% respectively, providing the basis for the Fed to start raising interest rates in early 2011. If realised, Lloyds TSB predict generalised US dollar strength to return as a key theme in 2011. Nearer-term, the USD is likely to be underpinned by simmering fears about the global recovery, providing an important backstop against further declines in H2 2010.
Markets remain nervous about the situation in Hungary and the Hungarian government has not done much to calm markets. Deputy chairman of the governing Fidesz party Lajos Kosa yesterday in an interview with Hungarian TV told the IMF and the EU to be “realistic”. Of course both the EU and the IMF will remember that Mr. Kosa was the one who recently spooked markets when he (realistically??) compared Hungary to Greece. With this kind of confrontational style it is hard to see how the EU/IMF and Hungary will reach a compromise. On top of the agenda today is the South African rate decision. Contrary to the consensus expectation Danske expect the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) to cut its key policy rate by 50bp, which would bring the key policy rate to 6.00%. For the rate reduction argue recent dovish comments from SARB governor Gill Marcus, inflation development but also recent data from the economy, which mostly surprised on the downside signalling that the economic recovery is losing steam. Moves in EUR/USD are in charge in terms of the relative performances among the EMEA currencies with TRY, ZAR and ILS outperforming when EUR/USD is trending downward and the opposite when EUR/USD is on a uptrend.
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